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Forecasting inflation is a staple of macroeconomic modelling, yet virtually all economists’ predictions for the United States in 2021 were way off the mark. This dismal performance reflected a collective failure to take economic models seriously enough, as well as other analytical shortcomings
19 Jan 2022
After a remarkably strong performance in 2021, financial markets now seem to be coming to terms with the likelihood that fiscal and monetary policies will tighten in 2022. Though a bearish outlook may not yet be warranted, the possibility that equities could suffer a net-negative year must be taken seriously
18 Jan 2022
It’s time for the bond market’s voluntary guidelines to be phased out. They are no longer fit for purpose. We need proper rules with deterrents and sanctions.
17 Jan 2022
After helping to drive decades of development and modernization in emerging economies, the 20th century economist W. Arthur Lewis's Nobel Prize-winning growth model can now be applied to the entire world. Unfortunately, what it shows is that we are heading into a period of deep uncertainty and supply-constrained growth.
17 Jan 2022
Experiments that depart from conventional economic policy can be costly. But this does not mean that there are universal rules in economics or that the prevailing view among mainstream economists should determine what policymakers do
14 Jan 2022
Unlike the United States, which could spend one-quarter of its GDP protecting its economy from the Covid-19 fallout, Argentina entered the pandemic with the deck stacked against it. Yet, thanks to the current government’s policies to strengthen the real economy, the country has been enjoying a remarkable recovery
11 Jan 2022
The rigid stances of Modern Monetary Theory’s devotees and detractors have not lent themselves to productive discussion. This is a serious loss for policymakers, because MMT includes both problematic propositions and perfectly reasonable – even highly useful – ones
11 Jan 2022
After years of central banks keeping interest rates low and pumping liquidity into financial markets, asset valuations are at historic highs. While entrepreneurs and venture capitalist founders tell themselves that “capital is a strategy”, bubble finance is no substitute for a business plan that can achieve positive cash flow
9 Jan 2022
Firms like GE and Siemens may well find that their decision to split their businesses into multiple companies leads to increased profits and higher stock prices. But recent research indicates that this is not the only way conglomerates can boost efficiency
8 Jan 2022
While the conventional wisdom is that the next financial crash will come from the collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble, climate finance may pose a more serious risk. Mounting evidence suggests that green lending is displaying all the pathologies associated with financial manias
7 Jan 2022
As maritime industry undergoes rapid digitalization, ransomware attacks continue to escalate
6 Jan 2022
Strong inflows despite lower interest rates, climate change, new product rules, competition
6 Jan 2022
While investors should stay vigilant for evolving risks, Asia ex-Japan equities look set to regain ground
5 Jan 2022
Much like the US Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has subtly expanded its own remit even as it has failed to adjust to changing economic circumstances. And, as with the Fed, higher inflation could deliver a blow to the IMF's reputation – and to the economies the fund is meant to help
4 Jan 2022
Lax lending standards, cheap credit, and massive injections of liquidity from the central bank have created a toxic level of financial flexibility in the US economy. As financial conditions become increasingly unmoored from the real economy, comparing the US to the countries on the losing side of the Cold War does not seem far-fetched
3 Jan 2022