Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund ( MPF ) retirement scheme recorded a positive 1.11% return for the month of February, according to MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index, a result which, together with January’s strong result sees the MPF system record its third-best start since the MPF’s inception.

In absolute dollar terms, February’s investment gain, MPF Ratings – Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research – notes, is approximately HK$17.9 billion ( US$2.29 billion ) or HK$3,729 per the MPF’s 4.79 million members.

History suggests that MPF members can be optimistic in 2026, but MPF Ratings foresees exceptional risks. The 10 previous times, the MPF has produced a positive January and February resulted in seven positive full-year returns averaging approximately 14.36%, it points out, but a number of factors could derail this trend in 2026.

While the MPF February return was positive overall, US equities and Hong Kong-China equities were the only asset classes to record a loss, MPF Ratings shares, a phenomenon that has only occurred on four previous occasions, the last being February 2007.

After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets reached a record HK$1.63 trillion ( up HK$20.9 billion from end of January ), the MPF’s highest level for a record 10th consecutive month, and equivalent to an all-time record average MPF account balance of HK$340,216 ( up HK$4,355 from end of January ) per the MPF’s 4.79 million members.

Francis Chung, MPF Ratings’ chairman, reiterates his previously held view that volatility, rather than returns, could be this year’s key investment theme. This caution is despite the system generating a 1.11% February return ( as measured by MPFR All Fund Performance Index ), and a third-best two-month start to a calendar year since the MPF’s inception.

“At end of 2025, MPF Ratings said it expected 2026 to be volatile,” Chung adds. “The world is presently highly unpredictable, and such is the unpredictability the risk of not being invested is, in our opinion, higher than remaining invested. Diversification and long-term investing minimizes uncertainty and the MPF Authority’s mandated default investment strategy funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for the MPF’s 4.79 million members.”